I am not a medicine guy. I just understand a bit of math. Various studies have identified the R-0 of this virus to be around 3. R-0 means, if there is only one infected person in the otherwise healthy population, how many people will the person infect on an average. So, R-0 of 3 means, if on day 1 you have 1 infection, on day 2 you will have 3, on day 3 you will have 9, then 27, then 81… In a week you have 1000 infections, in 2 weeks 1 million and in 3 weeks 1 billion! Of course, infection growth will not be that high because as the number of infected people grow, the already infected will find less number of healthy people to infect and there should be some tapering of the curve. At present, in most countries of the world, India being no exception unlike what we were patting ourselves for earlier, the number of cases is doubling every 3-4 days. By yesterday night, 23 march, there were 500 cases in India. At this rate, India would have reached 2700 cases by 31 March, 1 lakh cases...
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